Posts Tagged ‘recession’

FROM WALLINGFORD – Cold numbers, warm town

Wednesday, December 30th, 2009

JASON ZANDRI

Jason From Wallingford

As I look at the calendar, I realize that I am writing my last piece for 2009 (my counterpart, Steve Knight, has the reigns for the December 27th publication).

In thinking back over 2009, I realize just how difficult a year it was for Wallingford (and the rest of the world, for that matter) with respect to the economy. Clearly, this recession has been the worst economic event since the Great Depression.

Opinion may be that the major decline is over and we are seeing growth in some sectors; however, some of us remember that in the more recent recessions of 80-82 and 90-91, Connecticut didn’t recover in the same way as the rest of the country. A fair portion of our manufacturing jobs disappeared to different parts of the globe. When the economy rebounded, Connecticut was behind the curve. It did replace jobs, but with lower-paying, serv­ice-oriented professions that are more susceptible to recessions because while manufacturing declines during a reces­sion, service-oriented professions are hit worse as people will simply cut back or stop using them altogether.

I fear this recovery will be no different for Connecticut.

A recession is now often defined simply as a period when GDP falls (negative real economic growth) for at least two consec­utive quarters.

As Wallingford enters 2010, there may well be more deepening of the impact of the current recession as it formally ends (the US did have one quarter of slight ex­pansion; all we need is one more and from a technical standpoint the recession is over).

The state is running a deficit, and cuts are coming to programs that were other­wise expecting to see state funds.

Wallingford’s School System has al­ready indicated that this upcoming year will be one of the tightest budget years ever due to reductions in state funding, and that certain items in their budgets that are already running in the red with less than half the school year gone.

Several neighboring towns have already indicated that tax-collecting is down, and while every town has a certain buffer built in for expected arrearages, they all admit that despite adding to that buffer for this upcoming tax year, it may well be that they underestimated the total impact.

All of this means that unless town serv­ices (some of which are already bare bones) can find ways to leverage new ways of doing things that return a total lower cost, residents may find themselves doing without those services or paying more for them.

Since some services cannot be done away with, the latter will most likely be the case. Compound that with revaluation and what this means is more taxes for res­idents, many of whom are struggling to pay as it is.

The incoming Town Council certainly has a daunting task in front of it in finding ways to balance all of this. I believe they are up to the task. I believe that as difficult of a recovery as this may be over the next 12 to 24 months, residents of Wallingford will do just that – recover (gracefully, I might add).

In spite of all of this difficulty, residents of Wallingford have come together for the Wallingford Emergency Shelter, Masters Manna, Animal Shelter and other organi­zations as they’ve needed help.

In the worst economic period since the Great Depression, citizens of this town dig in, push forward, and ask “what else ya got?“ (They understand that “this, too, shall pass.”)

2010 is not going to be an easier year, at least not at first, but it should get easier as the year moves forward.

It will seem easier simply due to the willingness of neighbors and strangers to not let something as big as a recession keep them from being good citizens and doing the right things.

This is the Walling­ford I love most.

Regional and State Employment and Unemployment Summary

Tuesday, November 24th, 2009

For release 10:00 a.m. (EST) Friday, November 20, 2009 USDL-09-1405

Technical information:

Employment: (202) 691-6559 * sminfo@bls.gov * www.bls.gov/sae Unemployment: (202) 691-6392 * lausinfo@bls.gov * www.bls.gov/lau Media contact: (202) 691-5902 * PressOffice@bls.gov REGIONAL AND

STATE EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT – OCTOBER 2009 – Full details

United States ……………….| 10.2

Alaska …………………………| 8.9

Arkansas ……………………….| 7.6

California ……………………..| 12.5

Colorado ……………………….| 6.9

Connecticut …………………….| 8.8

Delaware ……………………….| 8.7

District of Columbia …………….| 11.9

Florida ………………………..| 11.2

Hawaii …………………………| 7.2

Idaho ………………………….| 9.0

Iowa …………………………..| 6.7

Kansas …………………………| 6.8

Louisiana ………………………| 7.4

Maine ………………………….| 8.2

Maryland ……………………….| 7.3

Massachusetts …………………..| 8.9

Michigan ……………………….| 15.1

Minnesota ………………………| 7.6

Montana ………………………..| 6.4

Nebraska ……………………….| 4.9

Nevada …………………………| 13.0

New Hampshire …………………..| 6.8

New Mexico ……………………..| 7.9

New York ……………………….| 9.0

North Carolina ………………….| 11.0

North Dakota ……………………| 4.2

Oklahoma ……………………….| 7.1

Oregon …………………………| 11.3

Pennsylvania ……………………| 8.8

Rhode Island ……………………| 12.9

South Carolina ………………….| 12.1

South Dakota ……………………| 5.0

Texas ………………………….| 8.3

Utah …………………………..| 6.5

Vermont ………………………..| 6.5

Virginia ……………………….| 6.6

Washington ……………………..| 9.3

West Virginia …………………..| 8.5

Wisconsin ………………………| 8.4

Wyoming ………………………..| 7.4

————————————————————–


Real gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 2.8 percent in the third quarter of 2009

Tuesday, November 24th, 2009

Real gross domestic product — the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States — increased at an annual rate of 2.8 percent in the third quarter of 2009, (that is, from the second quarter to the third quarter), according to the "second" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP decreased 0.7 percent.

We’ll need one more quarter of growth for the recession to be over from a technical standpoint as it takes two consecutive quarters of growth for that.

Even at that point, a steady recovery might be a quarter or two away after that but it is good to see the signs that the storm might be just about over.

You can review all the details at the Bureau of Economic Analysis National Economic Accounts website and this is the direct link to the GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT: THIRD QUARTER 2009 (SECOND ESTIMATE) CORPORATE PROFITS: THIRD QUARTER 2009 (PRELIMINARY)


Stock market rebounds; time to take some profits ahead of the correction

Monday, September 7th, 2009

So there are a number of articles and blog postings about this topic since the stock market bounced off its lows in March of this year and what I consider the bottom – a few think we’ll head all the way back down and then some; I am not thinking this.

I do believe we’ve recovered quite nicely since then.

Actually, too nicely.

We are certainly due for some pull back and September and October are historically noted for this regardless of market direction or the state of the overall economy. Given that and having raced upward from the bottom in a relatively short period of time I know this one of those “when” not “if” scenarios.

George Gombossy wrote a great blog post titled Stock market rebounds: time to worry, consider taking some profits off the table, have $$$ left to buy in during correction and I share a lot of that sentiment.

I am taking stocks I own in my investment accounts (401(k), ROTH, and otherwise) that are up by 6% or more in entirety and selling them so I have cash (with the exception of higher dividend bearing stocks – those that generate 6% or more in yield). I’ll continue to do this until I have a 50% cash position or I run out of stocks that are up for the year. (Despite the recovery, I do still have a few that are solid companies that have not fully recovered from the last big slide – I expect they will over the next 12 to 24 months and I can wait them out).

I figure we are due for about a 15% total pull back from where we are today.

My best guess puts the Dow back to about 8000, the S&P back to about 875, and the Nasdaq back to about 1725 in or around the November time frame.

When two of the three pass those numbers going backwards I’ll push that cash back in on the assumption that the next run up wouldn’t be too far behind.

I have no formula but I am thinking we’ll have to get beyond what I expect to be a mediocre to disappointing consumer season around the holidays before the financial recovery in the markets really takes proper hold (growing steadily upwards about 10% for 2010 instead of an effective straight shot up.)

The recession is ending. Just like a hurricane that ends, there is still some wind and rain and a lot of clean up but don’t let those that profit from the dismal climate fool you – the worst is over.

They want you to believe otherwise because they are pocketing a lot of profit on people’s fear and anxiety as they are scaring people into working harder with no raises (or even pay or benefit cuts) because they can do it and people ARE scared.

Corporations that made billions of dollars last year made net profits a few hundred million dollars less this year (but still a net profit in the billions) and they have cut jobs and frozen pay because they can claim they are being squeezed. Because you and I have no recourse and literally no other place to look for comparable work we stay, put up with it and they get away with it and profit like hell because of it. Fear is a great motivator to make people work harder, improve output, forgo earned vacation (which they “profit” on twice effectively – you don’t take time they have to pay you for and you are producing output for them when you’d otherwise be out of office) and so on.

Those that are reaping the most from the fear motivator would like nothing else for the ruse of the recession to continue for another 12 months.

Make no mistake, there was a really bad recession, one with the likes not seen since the Great Depression but just like that Category 5 hurricane, it’s left a lot of damage in its wake and its still a bit windy and rainy but it IS over.

And just like Florida after any good walloping we’ll rebuild too, bigger and better than before.

That’s America and that’s how we roll. 

FROM WALLINGFORD – Bleak years and the property tax

Sunday, August 23rd, 2009

Jason Zandri

As published online via MyRecordJournal.com Friday August 14, 2009 for Sunday print publication in the Record Journal

Jason From Wallingford

There was an Associated Press story in the Record Journal on Tuesday August 4th titled "Biggest drop in tax revenues since 1932" written by Stephen Ohlemacher. (If you go to Bing.com and do a search for "Stephen Ohlemacher 1932" you’ll be able to find links on the internet and you can read the entire article).

The main points of the article showed that the recession is starving the federal government of tax revenue at a time when there is a major expansion planned for health care and other programs. It is never good to hear about expanding costs at any time but especially in the face of declining revenues.

Because of the way government works it doesn’t even mean that all of these programs (new or existing) will be curbed or curtailed; many will still go forward and either be paid into now by raising the taxes of those that still do pay their bills or by borrowing from the future (in the form of more debt).

At the federal level it was reported that tax receipts have dropped at this point "18 percent this year while the federal deficit rose to a record $1.8 trillion. Individual income tax receipts are down 22 percent from a year ago. Corporate income taxes are down 57 percent. Social Security tax receipts could drop for only the second time since 1940, and Medicare taxes are on pace to drop for only the third time ever."

"The last time the government’s revenues were this bleak, the year was 1932 in the midst of the Depression."

All of this brings me back home and that ever fateful discussion of property taxes here in Wallingford. While property taxes are a very different animal from the above discussion there are some similarities.

For one thing, tax charges are reviewed and collected based on the planned budget and assumed against all of the assessed property in town (that can be taxed; some major land and property owners in town are tax exempt and pay nothing or next to nothing). With respect to the local budget and the tax assessments of a few years ago, the mill rate has been set to collect taxes to pay for all the town’s expenses and services that are consumed.

The issue I see upcoming is that we are planning for a reassessment soon which isn’t really going to change the amount of collected taxes from most people because if the property value goes down the mill rate must go up because the dollars that must come in through taxes for the planned expenses must be covered.

My concern is how Wallingford might be planning to handle payments that are not coming in (defaults and payments going into arrears).

I am not privy to every conversation in town, heck, I’m not privy to most, but when I have asked about what we’re planning to do if tax collections fall dramatically I’m not getting complete answers and this concerns me.

The answers range from, "we have a little cushion assumed because every year there are a certain number of bills that go into arrears and this year we broadened that somewhat" to "we’re expecting some drop off but nothing radical."

"The last time the government’s revenues were this bleak, the year was 1932 in the midst of the Depression."

This is not to sound like Chicken Little but I wonder if we’ve planned enough since the last time levels like this were seen, no one that presently works in Town Hall was even born (save perhaps for one or two exceptions).

We’ve done a really good job at running lean, Wallingford always has, but with little buffer room and no real visible fat that means in a dramatic negative swing we might need dramatic action to keep from having to suddenly take on unnecessary short term debt or having a need to suddenly suspend some services.

Biggest drop in tax revenues since 1932

Wednesday, August 5th, 2009

As published in the Record Journal Tuesday August 4 2009

Follow all the news directly on the Record Journal Website for the most up to date information. www.myrecordjournal.com

Write a letter to the editor letters@record-journal.com

 

By Stephen Ohlemacher – Associated Press

WASHINGTON — The re­cession is starving the govern­ment of tax revenue, just as the president and Congress are piling a major expansion of health care and other pro­grams on the nation’s plate and struggling to find money to pay the tab.

The numbers could hardly be more stark:Tax receipts are on pace to drop 18 percent this year, the biggest single-year decline since the Great De­pression, while the federal deficit balloons to a record $1.8 trillion.

Other figures in an Associ­ated Press analysis underscore the recession’s impact: Indi­vidual income tax receipts are down 22 percent from a year ago. Corporate income taxes are down 57 percent. Social Security tax receipts could drop for only the second time since 1940, and Medicare taxes are on pace to drop for only the third time ever.

The last time the govern­ment’s revenues were this bleak, the year was 1932 in the midst of the Depression.

‘Our tax system is already inadequate to support the promises our government has made,’ said Eugene Steuerle, a former Treasury Department official in the Reagan adminis­tration who is now vice presi­dent of the Peter G. Peterson Foundation.

‘This just adds to the prob­lem.’ While much of Washington is focused on how to pay for new programs such as over­hauling health care — at a cost of $1 trillion over the next decade — existing programs are feeling the pinch,too.

Social Security is in danger of running out of money ear­lier than the government pro­jected just a few month ago.

Highway, mass transit and air­port projects are at risk be­cause fuel and industry taxes are declining.

The national debt already exceeds $11 trillion. And bills just completed by the House would boost domestic agen­cies’ spending by 11 percent in 2010 and military spending by 4 percent.

For this report, the AP ana­lyzed annual tax receipts dat­ing back to the inception of the federal income tax in 1913. Tax receipts for the 2009 budget year were available through June. They were com­pared to the same period last year. The budget year runs from October to September, meaning there will be three more months of receipts this year.

Is there a way out of the fi­nancial mess? A key factor is the econ­omy’s health. The future of current programs — not to mention the new ones Obama is proposing — will depend largely on how fast the econ­omy recovers from the reces­sion, said William Gale, co-di­rector of the Tax Policy Center.

‘The numbers for 2009 are striking, head-snapping. But what really matters is what happens next,’ said Gale, who previously taught economics at UCLA and was an adviser to President George H. W. Bush’s Council of Economic Advisers.

‘If it’s just one year, then it’s a remarkable thing, but it’s to­tally manageable. If the econ­omy doesn’t recover soon, it doesn’t matter what your so­cial, economic and political agenda is.There’s not going to be any revenue to pay for it.’ A small part of the drop in tax receipts can be attributed to new tax credits for individ­uals and corporations enacted in February as part of the $787 billion economic stimulus package. The sheer magnitude of the tax decline, however, points to the deep recession that is reducing incomes, wip­ing out corporate profits and straining government pro­grams.

Social Security tax receipts are down less than a percent­age point from last year,but in May the government had been projecting a slight increase. At the time, the government’s best estimate was that Social Security would start to pay out more money than it re­ceives in taxes in 2016,and that the fund would be de­pleted in 2037 unless changes are enacted.

Some experts think the sour economy has made those numbers outdated.